Las Vegas, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

364
FXUS65 KABQ 252356 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
556 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

- Moderate heat risk will impact the lower elevations of central
  and eastern New Mexico Saturday, then the lower elevations of
  the Rio Grande Valley westward Sunday. Cooler temperatures are
  forecast next week.

- After a downtick in storm coverage through Saturday, monsoon
  moisture will begin to spread northward over New Mexico again on
  Sunday. Then, monsoon moisture will surge over the forecast
  area during the first half of the coming work week with locally
  heavy rainfall daily, as well as the potential for isolated to
  scattered flash flooding mainly during the afternoon and evening
  each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A broad area of upper level low pressure off the CA coast and a
large upper level high over the southeast U.S. will spread south to
southwest flow aloft over NM. This pattern will allow much drier air
over AZ to penetrate farther east into NM compared to recent days.
PWATs at KABQ are progged to fall as low as 0.4" thru Sunday. There
will still be enough lingering moisture and instability east of the
central mt chain today for isolated showers and storms, but most
activity is expected to produce <0.15" of rainfall. The exception
will be near the Caprock of southeast NM where smaller footprints
>0.30" are possible. By Saturday, storm chances primarily focus
over southeast NM with near-zero chances elsewhere. Max temps will
trend a couple degrees warmer areawide thru Saturday with minimum
humidity falling below 10% over western NM. Moderate heat risk is
possible in the lower elevations of eastern NM where highs reach
into the upper 90s to near 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

By Sunday, the easterly wave currently located off the TX coast will
have moved west to near Coahuila. Strengthening southeasterly return
flow ahead of this wave will help PWATs climb above 1.25" across the
southeast third of NM. A 595dm H5 high center is shown developing
over central NM ahead of the easterly wave/inverted trough Sunday
afternoon. Strong afternoon heating with increasing moisture and
weak steering flow will help storm chances increase again from the
Sacramento Mts south and eastward. Deep-layer southeast flow
continues to advect richer moisture into the region Sunday night
and Monday as the inverted trough continues moving west across
Chihuahua. The 12Z NAM12 is building the H5 high center to near
600dm around southeast CO while several other models and the LREF
cluster analysis show a weaker high farther west near southwest
CO. PWATs continue to rise as the moisture plume continues
advancing north and west into more of central and western NM. The
latest NBM precip chances have trended toward "likely" around the
central and southern high terrain Monday afternoon. Steering flow
will be slow and erratic toward the north and west given the
proximity of the high setting up somewhere north of NM. Confidence
on Flood Watches for the Ruidoso area is only low to moderate for
Sunday and Monday at this time.

Currently, Tuesday is looking like a more widespread active day as
the inverted trough becomes absorbed into the south-north monsoon
plume over central and western NM. All the ingredients appear in
place for widespread showers and storms with torrential rainfall
rates along and west of the central mt chain. Remnant convective
circulations, surface boundaries, and cloud cover from Monday night
along with the eventual location of the inverted trough will throw a
wrench into nailing down the details with where the heaviest rain
rates will occur Tuesday. An overall similar scenario is possible
Wednesday but with the moist-instability axis shifted farther north
and west across NM.

The H5 ridge axis may attempt to develop westward more into NM again
Thursday and Friday but with abundant moisture still trapped beneath
the high. While storm coverage may decrease, any activity that does
develop would be very slow moving and still be capable of locally
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are much more sparse early this evening,
generally staying isolated to scattered east of the central
mountain chain of New Mexico. Heavy donwpours and gusty downburst
winds to 45 kt will accompany the stronger storms through the
early evening before activity comes to an end. Light breezes and
clearing skies are then forecast late this evening into the
overnight hours. Even less storm activity will be observed on
Saturday with the Sangre de Cristo (KAXX) and Sacramento (KSRR)
mountains potentially observing a brief weak shower or storm. Hot
temperatures in the mid 90`s across many lower elevations, and
even near 100 in KROW, will lead to high density altitude
readings that will pose poor aircraft performance for some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A trough of low pressure sliding across the Great Basin today will
force even drier air farther eastward into central NM thru Sunday.
Southwest wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph may also occur over northwest
NM with minimum humidity falling into the upper single digits. ERC
values are also highest over northwest NM with the extended drought
conditions in place. Storm coverage will decrease areawide over the
weekend with most activity outside of eastern NM producing little to
no rainfall thru Saturday. Moisture will creep back into southeast
NM Sunday and allow for greater chances for wetting rainfall east of
the central mountain chain and over the Gila region. A substantial
uptick in storm coverage is expected next week as the monsoon plume
sets up more into central and western NM. Much needed precip is
still shown on the latest WPC outlook with widespread 0.25-0.50"
and locally >1" along and west of the central mt chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  92  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  88  45  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  56  88  55  90 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  49  88  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  53  85  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  53  89  53  92 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  55  87  55  89 /   0   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  61  88  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  55  86  54  87 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  53  92  53  94 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  58  96  58  98 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  47  82  48  85 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  61  85  62  87 /   5   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  56  86  58  88 /   5   0   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  54  84  55  86 /  10   5   0   5
Red River.......................  46  75  46  78 /  10  10   5   5
Angel Fire......................  41  79  39  80 /  10  10   5  10
Taos............................  51  86  51  89 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  50  84  52  84 /  10   5   5  10
Espanola........................  59  93  59  95 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  61  87  62  89 /   5   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  58  90  60  92 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  97  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  95  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  61  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  64  95  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  61  95  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  65  96  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  95  63  97 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  64  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  95  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  66  97  66  98 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  87  61  90 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  61  91  63  94 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  54  90  56  92 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  90  53  93 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  56  85  58  86 /   5   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  56  88  59  90 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  57  87  59  88 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  64  91  65  90 /   0  10   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  58  84  58  83 /   5  20  10  30
Capulin.........................  53  85  55  86 /  20  10   5   5
Raton...........................  52  89  52  91 /  20  10   5   5
Springer........................  53  92  53  93 /  20  10   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  53  87  55  88 /  10   0   0   5
Clayton.........................  62  92  64  93 /  20   5   5   0
Roy.............................  57  89  59  90 /  20   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  62  97  66  96 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  93  63  92 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  61  94  65  93 /  10   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  67  97  68  95 /   5  10   5   5
Portales........................  66  98  68  96 /   5  10   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  65  97  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69 100  71  97 /   5   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  61  93  63  91 /   5  10   0  10
Elk.............................  60  91  61  89 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...52